Enye: Iindlela zengqesho e-United States kule minyaka ilishumi izayo (ingxelo kaMcKinsey)

a.Ngokuqhelekileyo, iUnited States iya kuqhubeka ikhula kwingqesho kule minyaka ilishumi izayo.

b.UMcKinsey uqikelela ukuba ingqesho iya kuqhubeka ikhula kwimimandla yokhathalelo lwempilo, iteknoloji ye-STEM, indalo kunye nolawulo, ishishini kunye nomthetho, ulawulo, imfundo kunye noqeqesho lomsebenzi, inkonzo yabathengi kunye nokuthengisa, ulawulo lwepropathi, ezolimo, ulwakhiwo, kunye nokulungiselela okulandelayo. ishumi leminyaka.

c.Impilo kunye nokukhula kwemisebenzi enxulumene ne-STEM iphezulu kune-30%.Ukukhula kwe-STEM akunzima ukukuqonda.Ukwanda kwenani lezempilo kunye nezikhundla zonyango ikakhulu kuba abantu bafuna ukuphila ubomi obuphilileyo ukuze bandise ixesha labo lokuphila, kwaye ukwandiswa kobomi kukhokelela ekugugeni kwehlabathi.

d.Ufakelo kunye nokugcinwa koomatshini, inkonzo yoluntu, umgca wendibano kunye nabasebenzi abasebenza ngoomatshini, iinkonzo zokutya, kunye nabasebenzi baseofisini abasisiseko baya kuphulukana nemisebenzi yabo ngenxa yobukrelekrele bokwenziwa kule minyaka ilishumi izayo.

UMcKinsey uqikelela imisebenzi ekhula ngokukhawuleza kwiindawo ezintlanu eziphambili zobugcisa, ukudala, ubutyebi, inkxaso yentlalo-ntle, kunye nokhathalelo lwempilo kule minyaka ilishumi izayo.

a.Itekhnoloji yeFrontier: abaphuhlisi besoftware

b.Udidi lwendalo: abaqulunqi bangaphakathi, i-multimedia kunye ne-animators, kunye nabayili bemiboniso, njl.

c.Ulawulo lobutyebi: ingcali yezondlo;umrhwebisebenzisa ingcali yefiziyoloji;umphathi wobutyebi, njl.

d.Inkxaso yezentlalo neemvakalelo: abaqeqeshi, iklinikhi / ukubonisana, kunye neengcali zengqondo zesikolo, njl.

e.Ukhathalelo lwempilo: ingcali yezomzimba;umongikazi;umncedisi kagqirha;ugqirhaumncedisi wokhathalelo lomntu, njl.

Kwixesha elizayo, abasebenzi abaninzi baya kufuneka ukuba babe nobuchule obuphezulu bokuqonda (ukudala, ukukwazi ukusingatha ulwazi olunzima ukuxazulula iingxaki), intlalontle kunye nonxibelelwano (izakhono zokuqhuba, ubunkokeli kunye nokulawula), kunye nobuchule bobugcisa (ikhono lokucwangcisa / ukucwangcisa inkqubo isakhono sokwenza idatha).

Eyesibini: Ulwalamano phakathi kwamagunya amakhulu ehlabathi luya kuba nzima ngakumbi kwiminyaka elishumi ezayo

a.Amazwe amathandathu amakhulu emhlabeni: i-United States, i-China, iRashiya, i-European Union (ngokubanzi, amandla ayo okusebenza alingana nelizwe elikhulu), iJapan, i-Indiya.

I-Brazil ayizange ibalwe, nangona ikhulu ngokwaneleyo ukuba ibe lilizwe elikhulu, ngelishwa, amandla ayo okwenza izinto aphantsi.

Ihlathi laseAmazon owona mphunga mkhulu emhlabeni liseBrazil, kwaye uMlambo iAmazon, izintso zomhlaba, ukwaseBrazil.Atyebe kangakanani amanzi?Nakwixesha elomileyo, umthamo wawo wamanzi uphindaphindeka kayi-8 kunoMlambo iYangtze.

Indawo eBrazil kukuba iimeko zintle kakhulu.Ukuba ilunge kakhulu, kuya kuba lula ukuba neengxaki: ukuxengaxenga nokungabi nabuchule kolungelelwaniso, nenkqubela phambili yabantu ngokusisiseko ijongwa ngamandla ombutho.

IRashiya inabemi abambalwa ngokwentelekiso abantu abazizigidi ezili-142 kunye nomlinganiselo wokuzalwa we-0.67 kuphela.Umfazi akanakuba namntwana;abemi baseYurophu naseJapan nabo bayaluphala.Ngokweembono zabemi, izibonelelo, kunye namandla entlangano yelizwe, imeko yaseTshayina, eUnited States, naseIndiya ibhetele.

b.Ikamva lobudlelwane beSino-Japan kufuneka libe yingxaki kakhulu

EJapan, mna ndicinga ukuba yeyona nto inzima kakhulu kuwo onke amazwe ehlabathi ukwamkela ukunyuka kweTshayina, kuba iJapan ineengqondo ezimbini ezingenayo amanye amazwe, ubuhlanga bubudenge obuchasene neTshayina, elinye lityala elinzulu kakhulu. ingqiqo.

Imfuneko yokuba iJapan ibe nenzuzo yetekhnoloji kukuba amaTshayina anqabile ukufunda.Logama nje amaTshayina eqala ukufunda, yinto nje yexesha ngaphambi kokuba afumane itekhnoloji.

Uloliwe waseJapan ohamba ngesantya esiphezulu ubizwa ngokuba yiShinkansen, yaye bavakalelwa kukuba babodwa ehlabathini.Ngoku bazi ngokucacileyo ukuba uloliwe ohamba ngesantya esiphezulu waseTshayina ungcono kunabo.IFransi, iJapan kunye neTshayina zezona nkqubo zithathu zikaloliwe zihamba ngesantya esiphezulu ehlabathini.Singabona babalaseleyo.IShinkansen yaseJapan inesantya esiphezulu seekhilomitha ezingama-246 ngeyure, iFransi ineekhilomitha ezingama-272, kwaye eTshayina, ingaphantsi kweekhilomitha ezingama-300 ngeyure.Ngokwemigangatho yaseTshayina, akukho siporo sihamba ngesantya esiphezulu eJapan.Isantya seekhilomitha ezingama-246 singabizwa njani ngokuba nguloliwe ohamba ngesantya esiphezulu?

I-China lilizwe elilungileyo phakathi kwamagunya amakhulu.IJapan ngokwenene yadlula impazamo, kodwa ayizange ibone impazamo, ngoko ke ikamva lobudlelwane beSino-Japanese kufuneka libe yinkathazo kakhulu.

C. Ubudlelwane baseSino-Indian nabo kufuneka bube bunzima kakhulu kwixesha elizayo

Le yingxaki yokwenyani ngenxa yongquzulwano lwemida.Emva koko ngokufanelekileyo, sivuke ngaxeshanye kwaye sikwimeko yokhuphiswano lobuchule.

Ezintathu: Amagunya aphakathi kwiminyaka elishumi ezayo afanele ukuhoywa ngakumbi

Engqondweni yam, amagunya amane aphakathi esifanele sinikele ingqalelo ekhethekileyo kuwo kwixesha elizayo yiVietnam, i-Indonesia, i-Iran neTurkey.

a.Viyethnam

Ushishino lwaseVietnam kufuneka lube luhle.Inamandla okwenza imizi-mveliso, yaye inabemi abangaphezu kwezigidi ezingama-90, abaza kuba ngaphezu kwezigidi ezili-100 kungekudala.Isiseko sabemi sikhona kwaye amandla oshishino akhona.

Iziphumo zamanani eOlimpiki ezizwe ngezizwe zaphuma, uMzantsi Korea ubekwe kwindawo yokuqala, iChina yabekwa kwindawo yesibini, ze iVietnam ibe kwindawo yesithathu.Ndicinga ukuba iVietnam iselilizwe elinamandla kakhulu, kwaye ke isicwangciso sayo sozakuzo sihle kakhulu, esifanelwe ingqalelo.

b.Indoneshiya

Indawo yase-Indonesia ibalulekile, kwaye inokuzuza ngokunyuka kwe-China ne-Indiya.Iziko lobuchule lase-United States lifikile apha kwakhona, kwaye la mazwe mathathu anempembelelo kakhulu aya kuba apha kwixesha elizayo.Unokusebenzisa la mandla.I-Indonesia ngokwayo inesiseko esikhulu sabantu, izixhobo ezifanelekileyo kunye nokusingqongileyo, kunye neemeko ezilungileyo zengingqi.

c.Iran

I-Iran inempucuko ende, kwaye ilifa layo lenkcubeko ye-5000 lihle kakhulu.Abemi beli lizwe likhulu kakhulu, kwaye umhlaba welizwe ongaphezu kwe-1.6 yezigidi zeekhilomitha zeekhilomitha awuncinci.Ndicinga ukuba ukunyuka kwe-Iran, iqhawe lokuqala yi-United States, kwaye okwesibini yeyakhe.

Ngapha koko, iIran yayingakhululekanga kangangexesha elithile.Emva kweNguquko yoHlaza ngo-1979, iNtshona iyonke yayicinezela ngenxa yabathinjwa baseMelika.Ihlabathi lamaSunni layicinezela.Ngenkxaso edibeneyo yeNtshona kunye neSaudi Arabia, uSaddam waya kumbetha.I-Iran ne-Iran Kwiminyaka esibhozo enesiqingatha emva kwemfazwe, i-Iran yabulala abantu abangaphezu kwe-4.6 yezigidi.

Wabethwa kwezomkhosi, eyedwa kwezopolitiko, kwaye kunzima kakhulu kwezoqoqosho, kuba emva kwentlekele yesibini yeoli ngo-1979, abantu baseNtshona bayeka ukusebenza, kwaye ixabiso leoli lehla.I-Iran yayithembele kwioli, ngoko ibiye yezoqoqosho ixesha elide.Inzima kakhulu.Kodwa kule nkulungwane, ngoncedo lwamaMerika, ngoku intlanzi enetyuwa eguqulwayo kwaye iphila.Umzekelo, into yokuqala eyenziwa yiUnited States kukubulala utshaba lwayo oludala uSaddam.

I-Iran ayinalo olo xinzelelo lungako kukhuseleko, idiplomacy nayo itshintshile, kwaye amaxabiso eoli anyukile kwiminyaka yakutshanje, kwaye uqoqosho lwayo luye lwaphila, ngoko i-Iran ngoku ikwimeko engcono kakhulu kunokuba yayinjalo kwiminyaka elishumi edlulileyo, kwaye ihleli. nethemba kwikamva.

Ukongezelela, kutheni uSirayeli eyoyika ngokukhethekileyo?

Kuba kusenokwenzeka ukuba lilizwe kuphela kwilizwe lamaSilamsi elinesisongelo sokwenyani kuSirayeli kwixesha elizayo, abanye abantu abanalo ngokwenene obu buchule.Ngenxa yokuba uSirayeli eyoyika ngokukhethekileyo, iUnited States iphenjelelwa nguSirayeli, yaye ngoku kuyimfuneko ukuyilungisa.

Kodwa kungakhathaliseki ukuba iwa njani, i-Iran iya kuba ngumkhosi ozimeleyo we-Middle East kwaye idlale indima.

d.Thekhi

Umongameli waseTurkey u-Erdogan unebhongo kakhulu.Ufuna ukuphumeza i-neo-Ottomanism, eya kuzisa iinguqu ezininzi kuMbindi Mpuma.

Isine: Indlela yophuhliso kule minyaka ilishumi izayo

a.Ukufunda kwimbumba

Ngokusebenzisa isethi yedatha esembindini, ixabiso linokukhutshwa kwidatha.Kodwa njengoko umthamo wedatha usanda, i-centralization yedatha iba nzima ngakumbi.

Isisombululo sale ngxaki yinkalo entsha yokufunda koomatshini, eyaziwa ngokuba yifederated learning.Esikhundleni sokuthumela idatha kwii-algorithms, ukufunda okudibeneyo kuthumela idatha kwii-algorithms.

Usenokuba ufumene izibonelelo zesifundo somdibaniso ngaphandle kokuqaphela.Xa uchwetheza umbhalo kwifowuni yakho, njengoko uchwetheza, indlela yongeniso ikunika iindlela ezininzi onokukhetha kuzo.Ezi ngcebiso zegalelo zenziwe ngenene yimodeli yokufunda ngomatshini.

Imithetho yabucala iyayithintela iapile, uGoogle, kunye nabanye ekuthumeleni imiyalezo yobuqu kwiindlela zabo zokufunda.Ke basebenzisa imfundo yomanyano ukuqeqesha imodeli kwifowuni yakho.

Izibonelelo zobumfihlo bomsebenzisi ziza ngeendleko zokusebenzisa i-algorithms kwisixhobo.I-Federal learning ifanelekile kwizicelo ezinenkxalabo malunga nobumfihlo.

b.E-imidlalo nolonwabo

I-Esports iya kuba lishishini elikhulu kuneyona midlalo iqhelekileyo.

"Siyi-basketball, siyi-NBA, siyi-ESPN encinci" - i-Netflix icacisa i-esports

Usenokumva ukapteni ethetha ngokufutshane emva komdlalo wesintu.Kwii-esports, iqela lonke lihlala lisasazwa ngqo.Oku kwenza kube lula kubabukeli ukuba baqonde ibali le-esports.Kwaye iinkampani zemidlalo zihlala zilungisa imithetho yomdlalo ukwenza ukuba ukonwabisa ngakumbi.

c.I-Blockchain kunye ne-bitcoin

I-Blockchain luphawu, kwaye ukuthembela kuyinzuzo yelo nqaku.

Kukho intetho eninzi malunga nesitshixo sokuzisa i-blockchain kwi-mainstream.Ulawulo oluphambili kusenzima.Ndiyakholelwa ukuba ukwamkelwa kwetekhnoloji ye-blockchain kuya kwenzeka kakhulu ngasemva kwekhonkco lobonelelo lweshishini.

Kunzima ukuguqula iinkqubo ezikhoyo kunye ne-blockchains.Ifuna inkxaso yabachaphazelekayo abaninzi kunye nokufumana idatha ethembekileyo ukusuka phantsi kwekhonkco ukwenzela ukwenza ikhonkco.Ukwamkelwa kwizinto eziqhelekileyo, ulawulo oluphambili, ukugcinwa kunye nokubuyisela kufuneka kulungiswe.

Ngokutsho kwe-bitcoin, ukuvuzwa kwabasebenzi basezimayini kunqunyulwa kwisiqingatha kuzo zonke iibhloko ze-210,000 ezigrunjiweyo, okubizwa ngokuba yi-halfing.Embindini we-2020, iya kuba sisiqingatha okwesithathu, abaninzi baqikelela ukuba kuya kukhokelela kwimarike entsha yenkomo.UJohn McAfee uqinisekile (uqikelela ukuba i-bitcoin iya kufikelela kwi-$ 500,000 ekupheleni kwe-2020).Ndiyathemba ukuba banyanisile.

I-Bitcoin yasilela njengemali, kodwa yaphumelela njengendawo yokugcina ixabiso.

d.akukho moto

Ukwamkelwa kweemoto ezingaqhubiyo kuya kucotha ngenxa yemiqobo yolawulo, kodwa ekugqibeleni ubungxowankulu buya kuphumelela.

Iindleko zothutho ziya kufutshane neqanda.

I-Netscape ibonelele ngeqonga le-Amazon, i-Google, kunye ne-Facebook, kwaye iinqwelo zeenqwelo ezingenamqhubi ziya kuba liqonga elitsha eliza kuphuhliswa.Xa ixabiso lokuhanjiswa liwela kwi-zero, liya kuvula iimodeli zeshishini elitsha ezingenangqondo ngoku, ezinje:

Ukulungiswa kokutya okuqhutywa ngemoto ukuze ipizza yakho ibe ntsha kwi-oveni ngexesha ufika apho.

Ukuhanjiswa okuqikelelwayo, umyalelo uthunyelwa ngaphambi kokuba imveliso ifike.

Iofisi ehambayo ngexesha lokuhamba.

Indawo yokubonisa usapho ethi "ndincede ndenze isizukulwana" yenza ukubuyisela iimpahla kube lula njengokuzisa.

Sebenzisa izinto ezisetyenziswa kancinci xa uzifuna.

Umthetho-siseko wokwenziwa ngexesha elifanelekileyo uya kuqhuba ukunyuka kokusetyenziswa kwangexesha.

e.inani labantu behlabathi liya kwanda ngebhiliyoni e-1 ngo-2030, kwaye imozulu iyonke iya kuqhubeka ishushu

Ngokwengxelo ye-UN yeSebe lezoQoqosho neNtlalo kwingxelo yabemi behlabathi ngo-2019, inani labemi behlabathi liza kufikelela kwi-8.5 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2030.

Inani labantu abalupheleyo likhula ngokukhawuleza, malunga nomntu omnye kwabasibhozo ngaphezulu kwama-65.

Kule minyaka ilishumi izayo, de kube sekupheleni kwenkulungwane yama-21, iAfrika iya kube inabona bantu basebenza ngokukhawuleza ehlabathini.

Ngokutsho kweengcali zeZizwe Ezimanyeneyo, i-60 pesenti yabemi behlabathi iza kuhlala ezixekweni ngo-2030, kwaye inani lezixeko ezinabantu abasisigidi liza kwanda lisuka kuma-548 ngo-2018 liye kutsho kuma-706.

Ngo-2030, inani labantu abazelwe emva kowama-2000 liya kuba ngaphezu kweebhiliyoni ezi-2, nto leyo ebenza babe yintsika yezopolitiko, ezoqoqosho nezentlalo.

Ngo-2030, ubushushu behlabathi buzakunyuka nge-1.5 degrees celcius.Ukutshintsha kwemozulu kuya kuchaphazela kakhulu uqoqosho lwehlabathi.Ukutshintsha kwemozulu kuya kuxabisa i-2 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwihlabathi kwimveliso elahlekileyo, ingxelo ezimeleyo.Ingxelo yebhanki yehlabathi ithi icandelo lezolimo e-Afrika lingabona ithuba lokukhula lilonke elikwitriliyoni enye yedola.

f.I-e-commerce iyakhula

I-E-commerce iya kuba yeyona ndlela iphambili yorhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe kunye nenjini yokukhula koqoqosho.

Ngokwezibalo ze-unctad, umthamo wentengiso ye-e-commerce yehlabathi udlule kwi-29 yezigidi zezigidi zeedola ngo-2019, apho i-88% ibiyi-B2B kwaye i-12% ibiyi-B2C.Ubungakanani obupheleleyo be-B2C yayiyi-412 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, ngokukodwa e-China.I-China, i-Indiya, kunye noMzantsi Afrika ngawona mazwe akhula ngokukhawuleza kurhwebo lwe-e-commerce.

Iipesenti ze-19.2 zabasebenzisi be-Intanethi baseRashiya basebenzisa i-e-commerce, ukusuka kumndilili wehlabathi weepesenti ezili-16.Iintlawulo eziphathwayo kungekudala ziya kuba jikelele kumazwe aneenkqubo ezingcono zebhanki.Ngokutsho kwe-ZDNet, i-86 ipesenti yamaTshayina ngabasebenzisi be-wallet ye-intanethi, bebeka kuqala kwihlabathi.I-Indonesia, iThailand kunye nePhilippines ziphakathi kwamazwe ali-10 aphambili ehlabathi ukuba athathelwe ekhaya ngocingo, ngokutsho kwe-PWC.Iintlawulo eziphathwayo zisasazeka ngokukhawuleza kwihlabathi jikelele.

Zonke iintlobo zeempawu zibonisa ukuba i-B2C iya kuba yeyona ndlela iphambili yorhwebo lwe-elektroniki lwehlabathi.Ngokomzekelo, iqela leLazada, i-portal ye-e-commerce exhaswa ngemali ngu-Alibaba, ibhengeze ukuba iya kuxhasa oosomashishini be-e-commerce abazizigidi ezisi-8 kunye namashishini amancinci naphakathi kwi-Asia-mpuma ye-Asia ngo-2030.

Kule minyaka ilishumi izayo, uninzi lwabemi behlabathi luya kudityaniswa ngokunzulu kwinkqubo yetyala lemali.

Phantsi kwemodeli entsha yorhwebo, izohlwayo zoqoqosho, ukungakhethi cala, kunye nokhuselo ziya kuphelelwa ngamandla kwaye zisilele ukuthintela ukunyuka koqoqosho olusakhulayo lwehlabathi nommandla.