Okokuqala: Izitayela zokuqashwa e-United States eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo (umbiko kaMcKinsey)

a.Ngokuvamile, i-United States izoqhubeka nokukhula emisebenzini eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo.

b.UMcKinsey ubikezela ukuthi ukuqashwa kuzoqhubeka nokukhula emikhakheni yokunakekelwa kwezempilo, ubuchwepheshe be-STEM, ukudalwa nokuphatha, ibhizinisi nomthetho, ukuphatha, imfundo nokuqeqeshwa kwemisebenzi yezandla, ukuhlinzeka amakhasimende nokuthengisa, ukuphathwa kwezakhiwo, ezolimo, ezokwakha, kanye nezokuthuthwa kwempahla esikhathini esizayo. ishumi leminyaka.

c.Ezempilo kanye nokukhula kwemisebenzi ehlobene ne-STEM kungaphezulu kwama-30%.Ukukhula kwe-STEM akunzima ukukuqonda.Ukwanda kwenani lezikhundla zezempilo nezokwelapha ngokuyinhloko kungenxa yokuthi abantu bafuna ukuphila impilo enempilo ukuze bandise isikhathi sabo sokuphila, futhi ukwandiswa kwempilo kuholela ekugugeni komhlaba wonke.

d.Ukufakwa nokugcinwa kwemishini, isevisi yomphakathi, izisebenzi zomhlangano nemishini, izinsiza zokudla, kanye nezisebenzi zasehhovisi eziyisisekelo zizolahlekelwa imisebenzi ngenxa yobuhlakani bokwenziwa eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo.

UMcKinsey ubikezela imisebenzi ekhula ngokushesha ezindaweni ezinhlanu ezinkulu zobuchwepheshe obuphambili, ukudala, ingcebo, ukusekelwa ngokomzwelo, kanye nokunakekelwa kwezempilo phakathi neminyaka eyishumi ezayo.

a.Ubuchwepheshe be-Frontier: abathuthukisi be-software

b.Isigaba sokudalwa: abaklami bangaphakathi, i-multimedia nama-animators, nabaklami besibonisi, njll.

c.Ukuphathwa kwengcebo: isazi sokudla okunempilo;umthengisi;sebenzisa uchwepheshe we-physiology;umphathi wengcebo, njll.

d.Ukwesekwa kwezenhlalakahle nezomzwelo: abaqeqeshi, umtholampilo / ukubonisana, kanye nezazi zokusebenza kwengqondo zesikole, njll.

e.Ukunakekelwa kwezempilo: umelaphi womzimba;umhlengikazi;umsizi kadokotela;udokotela;umsizi wokunakekelwa komuntu siqu, njll.

Emsebenzini wesikhathi esizayo, abasebenzi abaningi kuzodingeka babe nekhono eliphezulu lokucabanga (ukudala, ikhono lokusingatha ulwazi oluyinkimbinkimbi ukuze kuxazululwe izinkinga), ukuhlalisana nokuxhumana (okusebenzayo, ubuholi kanye namakhono okuphatha), kanye nekhono lobuchwepheshe (ikhono lokuhlela/ ikhono lokucubungula idatha).

Okwesibili: Ubuhlobo phakathi kwemibuso emikhulu yomhlaba buyoba nzima nakakhulu eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo

a.Amazwe ayisithupha amakhulu emhlabeni: i-United States, i-China, i-Russia, i-European Union (yonke, amandla ayo okusebenza alingana nezwe elikhulu), i-Japan, i-India.

IBrazil ayizange ibalwe, nakuba inkulu ngokwanele ukuba ibe yizwe elikhulu, ngeshwa, ikhono layo lokwenza izinto limpofu kakhulu.

Ihlathi lase-Amazon lephaphu elikhulu kunawo wonke emhlabeni liseBrazil, kanti uMfula i-Amazon, izinso zomhlaba, nawo useBrazil.Acebe kangakanani amanzi?Ngisho nangenkathi eyomile, umthamo wamanzi awo uphindwe izikhathi ezingu-8 kunomfula iYangtze.

Indawo eseBrazil ukuthi izimo zizinhle kakhulu.Uma inhle kakhulu, kuyoba lula ukuba nezinkinga: ukuxega kanye nekhono eliphansi lokuhlela, futhi inqubekelaphambili yomuntu ngokuyisisekelo ikalwa ngekhono lenhlangano.

I-Russia inenani elincane labantu abayizigidi ezingu-142 kanye nezinga lokuzalwa lingu-0.67 kuphela.Owesifazane akanakuba nengane;inani labantu baseYurophu naseJapane nalo liyaguga.Ngokombono wabantu, izinsiza, namandla enhlangano kazwelonke, isimo saseShayina, e-United States, naseNdiya singcono.

b.Ikusasa lobudlelwano beSino-Japanese kumele libe nzima kakhulu

Japan, mina ngokwami ​​​​ngicabanga ukuthi kunzima kakhulu kuwo wonke amazwe emhlabeni ukwamukela ukuphakama kweChina, ngoba iJapane ine-psychology emibili amanye amazwe angenayo, enye iwubuwula bokucwasa iChina, enye iyicala elijulile kakhulu. umqondo.

Okudingekayo ukuze iJapan ibe nethuba lobuchwepheshe ukuthi amaShayina anqabile ukufunda.Uma nje amaShayina eqala ukufunda, kuyindaba nje yesikhathi ngaphambi kokuba amthole kwezobuchwepheshe.

Isitimela saseJapane esinesivinini esikhulu sibizwa ngokuthi iShinkansen, futhi banomuzwa wokuthi babodwa emhlabeni.Manje bazi ngokusobala ukuthi ujantshi wesitimela waseChina onesivinini esiphezulu ungcono kunabo.I-France, i-Japan ne-China yizinhlelo ezintathu zesitimela ezihamba ngesivinini esikhulu emhlabeni.Singcono kakhulu.IShinkansen yaseJapan inesivinini esingamakhilomitha angama-246 ngehora, iFrance inamakhilomitha angama-272, kanti eChina ingaphansi kwamakhilomitha angama-300 ngehora.Ngokwezindinganiso zamaShayina, asikho isitimela esinesivinini esikhulu eJapan.Ijubane elingamakhilomitha angu-246 lingabizwa kanjani ngokuthi isitimela esinesivinini esikhulu?

I-China ingeyezwe elihle kakhulu phakathi kwemibuso emikhulu.I-Japan empeleni yaphasa iphutha, kodwa ayizange ibone iphutha, ngakho-ke ikusasa lobudlelwane baseSino-Japanese kumele libe nzima kakhulu.

C. Ubudlelwano bamaSino-Indian nabo kumele bube yinkinga esikhathini esizayo

Lokhu kuyinkinga yangempela ngenxa yezingxabano zemingcele.Khona-ke ngokufanelekile, sivuke ngesikhathi esifanayo futhi sisesimweni sokuncintisana ngamasu.

Ezintathu: Amandla anosayizi omaphakathi eshumini leminyaka elizayo adinga ukunakwa okwengeziwe

Engqondweni yami, amandla amane aphakathi nendawo okufanele siwanaka ngokukhethekile esikhathini esizayo yiVietnam, i-Indonesia, i-Iran neTurkey.

a.Vietnam

Izimboni zaseVietnam kufanele zibe zinhle.Inamandla okwenza izimboni, futhi inabantu abangaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-90, maduze nje bazoba ngaphezu kwezigidi eziyi-100.Isizinda sabantu sikhona futhi namakhono ezimboni ayatholakala.

Imiphumela yezinombolo zama-Olympics emhlabeni jikelele yaphuma, iSouth Korea yakleliswa kuqala, iChina yakleliswa endaweni yesibili, kwathi iVietnam yaba isithathu.Ngicabanga ukuthi iVietnam iseyizwe elinamandla kakhulu, futhi isu layo lezokuxhumana lihle kakhulu, elidinga ukunakwa.

b.I-Indonesia

Indawo yase-Indonesia ibalulekile, futhi ingazuza ekukhuleni kwe-China ne-India.Isikhungo samasu sase-United States sesifikile lapha futhi, futhi amazwe amathathu anethonya elikhulu azoba lapha esikhathini esizayo.Angawasebenzisa la mandla.I-Indonesia ngokwayo inesizinda esikhulu sabantu, izinsiza ezinhle nendawo ezungezile, nezimo ezinhle zesifunda.

c.I-Iran

I-Iran inempucuko ende, futhi ifa layo leminyaka engu-5000 lihle kakhulu.Inani labantu balesi sizwe likhulu kakhulu, futhi indawo yezwe engaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-1.6 zamakhilomitha-skwele ayincane.Ngicabanga ukuthi ukuphakama kwe-Iran, iqhawe lokuqala yi-United States, kanti elesibili ngelakhe.

Eqinisweni, i-Iran yayingakhululekile isikhathi esithile.Ngemuva kweGreen Revolution ngo-1979, iNtshonalanga yonke yayicindezela ngenxa yabathunjwa baseMelika.Umhlaba wamaSunni wawucindezela.Ngokusekelwa ngokubambisana kweNtshonalanga neSaudi Arabia, uSaddam wahamba wayomshaya.I-Iran ne-Iran Eminyakeni eyisishiyagalombili nengxenye ngemva kwempi, i-Iran yabulala abantu abangaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-4.6.

Washaywa ngokwezempi, wahlukaniswa ngokwezombangazwe, futhi kwaba nzima kakhulu kwezomnotho, ngoba ngemva kwenhlekelele yesibili kawoyela ngo-1979, abantu baseNtshonalanga bahoxiswa ezimbonini, futhi intengo kawoyela yehla.I-Iran ibithembele kuwoyela, ngakho-ke bekunezomnotho isikhathi eside.Kunzima kakhulu.Kodwa kuleli khulu leminyaka, ngosizo lwabantu baseMelika, manje isiyizinhlanzi ezinosawoti eziphendukile futhi ziphila.Isibonelo, into yokuqala eyenziwa yi-United States ukubulala isitha sayo esidala uSaddam.

I-Iran ayinayo ingcindezi engaka kwezokuphepha, i-diplomacy nayo ishintshile, futhi amanani kawoyela anyukile eminyakeni yamuva nje, futhi umnotho wayo usukhulile, ngakho-ke i-Iran manje isesimweni esingcono kakhulu kunaseminyakeni eyishumi edlule, futhi isaqhubeka. nethemba esikhathini esizayo.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, kungani u-Israyeli esaba kakhulu?

Ngenxa yokuthi kungenzeka kube yizwe kuphela emhlabeni wamaSulumane elinosongo lwangempela ku-Israyeli esikhathini esizayo, abanye abantu abanalo ngempela leli khono.Ngenxa yokuthi u-Israel uyesaba kakhulu, i-United States ithonywa u-Israyeli, futhi manje sekudingekile ukuyilungisa.

Kodwa noma ngabe iwa kanjani, i-Iran isazoba amandla azimele aseMpumalanga Ephakathi futhi ibambe iqhaza.

d.igalikuni

UMongameli waseTurkey u-Erdogan unesifiso esikhulu.Ufuna ukusebenzisa i-neo-Ottomanism, ezoletha okuguquguqukayo okuningi eMpumalanga Ephakathi.

Okwesine: Inkambiso yentuthuko kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo

a.Ukufunda kombuso

Ngokusebenzisa isethi yedatha emaphakathi, inani lingakhishwa kudatha.Kodwa njengoba umthamo wedatha ukhula, ukufakwa endaweni eyodwa kwedatha kuba nzima nakakhulu.

Isixazululo sale nkinga inkambu entsha yokufunda ngomshini, eyaziwa ngokuthi ukufunda okuhlangene.Esikhundleni sokuthumela idatha kuma-algorithms, ukufunda okuhlanganisiwe kuthumela idatha kuma-algorithms.

Kungenzeka ukuthi uke wabhekana nezinzuzo zocwaningo lwenhlangano ngaphandle kokuqaphela.Uma uthayipha umbhalo ocingweni lwakho, njengoba uthayipha, indlela yokufaka ikunikeza izinketho ezimbalwa ongakhetha kuzo.Lezi ziphakamiso zokufakwayo empeleni zenziwe imodeli yokufunda yomshini.

Imithetho yobumfihlo ivimbela i-apula, i-Google, nabanye ukuthi bathumele imilayezo yomuntu siqu kuma-algorithms abo okufunda.Ngakho-ke basebenzisa ukufunda kombuso ukuqeqesha imodeli kufoni yakho.

Izinzuzo zobumfihlo bomsebenzisi ziza ngezindleko zokusebenzisa ama-algorithms kudivayisi.I-Federal learning ifanele izicelo eziphathelene nobumfihlo.

b.E-ezemidlalo nokuzijabulisa

I-Esports izoba imboni enkulu kunemidlalo eminingi ejwayelekile.

"Siyi-basketball, siyi-NBA, siyi-ESPN encane" - I-Netflix ichaza i-esports

Ungase uzwe ukapteni ekhuluma kafushane ngemva komdlalo wesintu.Kwezemidlalo, ithimba lonke lihlezi lisakazwa bukhoma.Lokhu kwenza kube lula kubabukeli ukuthi baqonde umugqa wendaba we-esports.Futhi izinkampani zegeyimu zihlala zilungisa imithetho yomdlalo ukuze ziwenze ujabulise kakhudlwana.

c.I-Blockchain ne-bitcoin

I-Blockchain iyisici, futhi ukwethemba kuyinzuzo yaleso sici.

Kube nezinkulumo eziningi mayelana nokhiye wokuletha i-blockchain ku-mainstream.Ukuphatha okubalulekile kusenzima.Ngikholelwa ukuthi ukwamukelwa kobuchwepheshe be-blockchain kuzokwenzeka kakhulu ngemuva kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwebhizinisi.

Kunzima ukuguqula izinqubo ezikhona ngama-blockchains.Kudinga ukusekelwa ababambiqhaza abaningi kanye nokutholwa kwedatha ethenjwayo kusuka ezansi kuchungechunge ukuze kwakhiwe iketango.Ukuze kwamukelwe kokujwayelekile, ukuphathwa okuyinhloko, isitoreji, kanye nokutholwa kufanele kubhekwe.

Ngokusho kwe-bitcoin, imivuzo kubavukuzi inqunywa ngesigamu kuwo wonke amabhulokhi angu-210,000 ambiwe, okubizwa ngokuthi uhhafu.Maphakathi no-2020, izobe isinciphile okwesithathu, abaningi ababikezela ukuthi izoholela emakethe entsha yezinkunzi.UJohn McAfee uyazethemba (ubikezela ukuthi i-bitcoin izofinyelela ku-$ 500,000 ekupheleni kuka-2020).Ngethemba ukuthi baqinisile.

I-Bitcoin yehlulekile njengohlobo lwemali, kodwa yaphumelela njengesitolo senani.

d.ayikho imoto

Ukwamukelwa kwezimoto ezingashayeli kuzohamba kancane ngenxa yezingqinamba, kodwa ekugcineni ubunxiwankulu buzonqoba.

Izindleko zokuhamba zizosondela kuqanda.

I-Netscape inikeze inkundla ye-Amazon, Google, kanye ne-Facebook, futhi izimoto ezingashayeli kuzoba inkundla entsha ezothuthukiswa.Uma izindleko zokulethwa ziwela kuqanda, zizovula amamodeli ebhizinisi amasha angenangqondo manje, njenge:

Ukulungiswa kokudla kwemoto ukuze i-pizza yakho ibe yintsha kuhhavini ngesikhathi ufika lapho.

Ukulethwa okubikezelwayo, i-oda lithunyelwa ngaphambi kokuba umkhiqizo ufike.

Ihhovisi likamakhalekhukhwini ngesikhathi sokuhamba.

Indawo yombukiso yomndeni ethi "ngisizeni ngenze isizukulwane" yenza ukubuyisela izimpahla kube lula njengokuziletha.

Sebenzisa izinto ezisetshenziswa kancane lapho uzidinga kakhulu.

Umgomo wokukhiqiza okufika ngesikhathi uzoqhuba ukukhuphuka kokusetshenziswa okufika ngesikhathi.

e.inani labantu emhlabeni lizokwanda ngebhiliyoni elingu-1 ngo-2030, futhi isimo sezulu sisonke sizoqhubeka nokufudumala

Ngokombiko we-UN womnyango wezomnotho nezenhlalakahle emhlabeni jikelele we-2019, inani labantu emhlabeni wonke lizofinyelela ezigidini eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-8.5 ngo-2030.

Isibalo sabantu asebekhulile sikhula ngokushesha okukhulu, cishe nomuntu oyedwa kwabayisishiyagalombili abangaphezu kweminyaka engama-65.

Kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo, kuze kube sekupheleni kwekhulu lama-21, i-Afrika izoba nesibalo sabantu abakhula ngokushesha kunabo bonke abaneminyaka yokusebenza.

Ngokwezazi ze-UN, amaphesenti angu-60 abantu emhlabeni azobe esehlala emadolobheni ngo-2030, kanti inani lamadolobha anabantu abayisigidi lizokhula lisuka ku-548 ngo-2018 liye ku-706.

Ngo-2030, ingqikithi yenani labantu abazalwa ngemva kuka-2000 izodlula izigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezimbili, okubenza babe umgogodla wempilo yezombangazwe, ezomnotho, nezenhlalo.

Ngo-2030, amazinga okushisa emhlabeni wonke azokhuphuka ngo-1.5 degrees Celsius.Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuzothinta kakhulu umnotho womhlaba.Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuzodla umhlaba wonke ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezimbili ngokukhiqizwa okulahlekile, kubika abazimele.Umbiko webhange lomhlaba uthi umkhakha wezolimo e-Afrika ungabona ithuba lokukhula lilonke lika-$1 trillion.

f.i-e-commerce iyadlondlobala

I-E-commerce izoba indlela eyinhloko yohwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe kanye nenjini yokukhula komnotho.

Ngokwezibalo ze-unctad, ivolumu yokuthengiswa kwe-e-commerce emhlabeni wonke idlule ama-29 trillion us dollar ngo-2019, lapho ama-88% bekuyi-B2B kanti u-12% bekuyi-B2C.Isamba sikasayizi we-B2C sasingamadola ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-412, ikakhulukazi eChina.I-China, i-India kanye neNingizimu Afrika ngamazwe akhula ngokushesha kakhulu kwezohwebo nge-inthanethi.

Amaphesenti angu-19.2 abasebenzisi be-inthanethi baseRussia basebenzisa i-e-commerce, kusukela kusilinganiso somhlaba esingamaphesenti angu-16.Izinkokhelo zamaselula maduzane zizotholakala emhlabeni wonke emazweni anezinhlelo zamabhange ezingcono.Ngokusho kwe-ZDNet, amaphesenti angama-86 amaShayina angabasebenzisi be-inthanethi be-wallet, akleliswe kuqala emhlabeni.I-Indonesia, iThailand kanye nePhilippines aphakathi kwamazwe ayi-10 ahamba phambili emhlabeni ekuthathweni ngamaselula, ngokusho kwe-PWC.Izinkokhelo zamaselula zisabalala ngokushesha emhlabeni jikelele.

Zonke izinhlobo zezimpawu zibonisa ukuthi i-B2C izoba uhlobo oluyinhloko lwezohwebo ngogesi emhlabeni wonke.Isibonelo, iqembu leLazada, ingosi ye-e-commerce exhaswe yi-Alibaba, imemezele ukuthi izokweseka osomabhizinisi be-e-commerce abayizigidi eziyi-8 namabhizinisi amancane naphakathi nendawo eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ngo-2030.

Eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo, iningi labantu emhlabeni lizohlanganiswa ngokujulile ohlelweni lwezikweletu lwezezimali.

Ngaphansi kwemodeli entsha yezohwebo, unswinyo lwezomnotho, ubumbano olulodwa, kanye nokuvikela kuzolahlekelwa ukusebenza kahle kwakho futhi kuhluleke ukuvimbela ukukhula kwezomnotho emhlabeni wonke kanye nezifunda.